.id (informed decisions)

The impact of COVID-19 on the future population of Victoria's regions

February 2021


The forecasting challenge Our approach to population forecasting in a period of structural demographic change.


Forecast results Our latest forecasts for Victoria's SA4s and a summary of the most impacted areas.


Impact analysis When these impacts will be felt in Victoria and a discussion of fertility rates and housing.


Next steps Our plan for revising these forecasts and how you can keep up-to-date.

Analysis by Johnny Barnard

Forecasts modelled and published by the Location Decisions team at .id (informed decisions).

Johnny is an urban planner, population forecaster and spatial consultant with an extraordinary knowledge of places across Australia.

He has been forecasting, analysing, and mapping Australia’s urban changes since the late 1980s with a long involvement with .id’s local government forecasts. This knowledge is now being used to inform .id’s view on population change in the post-Covid world. As a Lead consultant with our Location Decisions team, Johnny has also completed projects informing board-level decisions with the AFL, NRL, Stockland, Red Cross and numerous education providers.